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The Therapy Sessions
Saturday, July 12, 2003

Break Up Iraq?!

Ralph Peters has spoken the unspeakable: he argues that we should break up Iraq into three separate countries if the Sunnis continue to cause problems in Baghdad.

I'm not sure.

But there are some real advantages to this idea. The Sunnis would get a country were they could maintian their dominance, but they would lose much of its oil. They'd learn the disadvantages of not playing ball (they want the status quo - Sunnis oppressing everyone else, and the idea of sharing power scares the hell out of them).

It would enrage Turkey by creating an oil rich Kurdistan on its border (Good - that "alliance" has been overtaken by events). It would enrage Saudi Arabia (our great friend - ha!) by creating a Shiite-dominated country. And it would impoverish the wretched governments of the region by lowering the price of oil (The new Kurd country and the new Shiite country would pump oil like crazy and they probably would not join OPEC). The Europeans would be pissed because anything that changes the staus quo bothers them. After all, they were perfectly happy with Saddam!

I like the idea more and more.

The disadvantage? It could cause a regional war. And the US would be providing the security guarantees to the new countries. We would have to have bases (not a bad thing) and Turkey or Iran would be foolish to get involved (but both countries are governed by fools). Instability in that region, though, is a GOOD THING, because it threatens the terrible undemocratic governments there.

Whatever we do, it is a good bet that peace-types will say we were wrong, and that all the problems our caused by our stupidity. For them, their hindsight is 20-20 and they count on everybody forgetting their predictions.

Right now, for example, they say we should withdraw from Iraq - which will CERTAINLY cause a huge regional war and it will lead to more attacks against the US (nothing emboldens terrorists more than the idea that we will cut and run).

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