The Therapy Sessions
Tuesday, July 22, 2003
The Feel Good Treaty
The idea of abadoning Kyoto looks better all the time. Now we learn this from the Independent:
"the latest [EU] member states' emission data show that 10 of the 15 member states are a long way off track for their agreed share of the EU greenhouse-gas emissions target."
I'm stunned. It's almost like they think restarting their moribund economies is more important than global warming! It's like it was all a big PR show, with the US cast as the evil villain.
As FLIT puts it:
With the Kyoto environmental accord, there's signature, ratification, and actually following the treaty. Signing is easy, if you don't intend to ratify. Ratification is easy, if you don't intend to follow the requirements, and finally, following the requirements is easy if your economy happens to have imploded since the treaty start date of 1990. The stronger your economic growth is, the less likely you will be able to fit into the Kyoto restriction regime.
Prediction? Next Russia will sign the treaty, accept the international accolades for doing so, and then promptly ignore all of its terms.
I've always thought that Kyoto was dumb from a purely economic perspective: if the rich countries cut their oil usage, it would cause a worldwide oil glut, and the price of oil would be lowered. Lower prices would inspire more oil usage in poorer parts of the world
(Like China and India), particularly in industries where profligate oil usage is not currently economically viable. In summation, you can't defeat the market.
Don't hold your breath waiting for the US media to print this story. It's still too much fun using Kyoto to bash Bush!